Mortgage News - Roy Nelson

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The Day Ahead: Chinese Inflation Drives Domestic Stocks Lower	3/11/2010 7:21 AM
Posted To: MND NewsWire Speculation that China may have to tighten its economic policy is pulling investor sentiment lower this morning. Amid positive data on industrial production and retail sales, Chinese CPI climbed 2.7% in February, indicating that the central bank may have to take a more serious approach to slow down spending. “China is aiming for 3% inflation for all of 2010,” said Benjamin Reitzes from BMO. “Continued acceleration would make that target tough to hit and markets are concerned that this latest jump in inflation could cause Chinese officials to tighten policy further.” Reitzes called the CPI figure “somewhat troubling,” adding that it’s too early to a definitive statement that prices are about to take off. “However, with the economic numbers showing...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS CLOSE: What Can Today Tell Us About Tomorrow?	3/10/2010 4:13 PM
Posted To: MBS Commentary This is always the question right? I mean, after all, we already know what is available on our rate sheets at the moment, but the most valuable question always asks for tomorrow's MBS prices today. Forgetting for a moment that you'll usually LOSE more money thinking that way than you'll make, let's suspend GUTFLOP and see if we have any hints at tomorrow's action according to today's events. First, the fundamental arguments... What do we know? 10yr auction built up a decent concession going in and stopped pretty much on the screws (meaning that rates went up ahead of the auction, then we saw strong demand at those rates) Strong demand AT THOSE RATES is evidenced by the relatively high "offers accepted at high" metric from the auction, meaning that most of the...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Rise Ahead of Treasury Auction. Fail to Recover Afterward	3/10/2010 3:48 PM
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch Much like Monday, yesterday was a data-less day in the marketplace, leaving me at a loss for words and new guidance. Mortgage-backed securities prices did managed to move higher following a very strong 3 year Treasury debt auction, unfortunately MBS price appreciations were not strong enough to warrant reprices for the better and lenders left mortgage rates unchanged on the day. The economic calendar picked up today, but not much. This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association released their Weekly Loan Applications Index. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS AFTERNOON: Mortgages Playing Follow the Leader with Benchmarks	3/10/2010 2:23 PM
Posted To: MBS Commentary Heading into the 5pm "what a slow day in the mortgage market" marking period... The FN 4.0 is -0-03 at 98-01 yielding 4.189% and the FN 4.5 is flat on the day at 101 the rock yielding 4.39%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.33%. The CC yield is 61bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 58.6 basis points over the 10 yr swap rate. Static current coupon yield spread valuations are TIGHTER AGAIN! Holy relentless yield spread tightening! LOOK HOW SIDEWAYS FN 4.5 PRICES WERE TODAY! The MBS NINJA shares his thoughts on the recent stability of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons in the face of rising benchmark yields: Mortgages, trading in the secondary market (soon to filter back to the primary and rate sensitive one), are tightening daily as more money is put to work along...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
FICO: Americans More Likely to Default on Mortgages than Credit Cards	3/10/2010 1:26 PM
Posted To: MND NewsWire American consumers are now defaulting on their mortgages in even greater numbers than they are walking away from credit card debt. According to FICO's® Score Trends Service, this is a phenomenon that is historically unique. FICO said the mortgage default risk for consumers with high FICO scores now exceeds their credit card default risk, even though most credit cards are unsecured credit and mortgages are secured by real estate. There is a parallel rise in mortgage delinquencies for these high scoring consumers. The company said that their analysis of trends in FICO scoring shows that recent repayment behavior has shifted significantly from what has historically been expected. In 2005 bankcard accounts were more than 3 times more likely to become seriously delinquent, that is 90+ days...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS LUNCH: 10 Year Treasury Auction Results and Reactions	3/10/2010 12:08 PM
Posted To: MBS Commentary 10 year auction has impressive demand, but at higher rates. 3.45 Bid To Cover, but 3.735 % high yield with 70.94% of the bids at high yield MBS and Treasuries both slightly better on the announcement 4.5's are now down only 2 ticks on the day at 100-29 and 10yr yields are back down to 3.72+ from 3.74+ Here is a breakdown of the auction results: 9-YR 11-MO NOTES YIELDS High 3.735 pct Median 3.700 pct Low 3.636 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.090493 Accepted at high 70.94 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 3.45 AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 21,000,013,800 Total public bids tendered 72,466,493,000 Competitive bids accepted 20,829,510,800 Noncompetitive bids accepted 70,503,000 Fed add-ons 248,452,700 Primary Dealer Tendered 49,661,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 9,857,410,000 Primary...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Loan Demand Stagnates. Only One Bright Spot in the Production Slowdown	3/10/2010 11:09 AM
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2010. The survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, such a trend implies consumers are seeking out lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items or to pay down other debt. From the release: The Market Composite Index, a measure of...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS MORNING: Losing Ground As Benchmarks Back Up	3/10/2010 11:05 AM
Posted To: MBS Commentary 4.5 MBS down 6 ticks to 100-26 10yr Tsy about 5bps higher at 3.743 (vs. 5pm yesterday) Wholesale Trade Improves from -.8% to -.2%, but misses expectation of +.2%, no one cares Pre-Auction Concession + range dynamics weigh on 10's, MBS follow The movements in bonds this AM tells us just how focused the market is on the upcoming auction. Granted, the econ data earlier today isn't exactly "top shelf" (or even middle shelf for that matter), but without a microscope, it's hard to tell if it was even traded. The "room to run" that AQ discussed this AM in conjunction with the standard pre-auction concession is dominating the movements in the benchmark, which itself, is forcing MBS prices lower. Somewhere between an eighth and a quarter of a point has left the YSP building...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Underwriters: Loan Quality Still in Need of Improvement; Interesting FICO Score Data; Will the Fed sell their MBS Holdings?	3/10/2010 10:22 AM
Posted To: Pipeline Press At the last company Christmas party, loan agents lined up on one side of the room and the underwriters on the other side. The loan agents throw fire cracker at the underwriters...and the underwriters lit them and threw them back. A long-time underwriter wrote to me and opined, "Consumers always want more than what they can afford and we gave them exactly what they wanted for the last 10 years (without any prudent financial advice). I actually like the guideline changes and feel it is necessary to eradicate some of the lackadaisicalness that I hear in some underwriter's voices. Manufacturing quality is still a problem for the Agencies, and originating mortgage companies are still closing loans that are not 100% purchasable by the aggregators upon delivery. Fannie and Freddie have technology...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS OPEN: Rates Ticking Higher Just Because They Can	3/10/2010 7:40 AM
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. I've had some great coaches in my lifetime...none better than my high school/juniors hockey skipper. Many of the messages he bestowed upon me have carried over from the locker room into my professional life. One of my favorites is the K.I.S.S principle. KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID This is incredibly relevant to the current market environment. The econ calendar isn't providing much meaningful guidance at the moment. Stocks are still showing an unwavering inclination to do what they want, when then want. Politicians are counting votes, leaving some of the most important reform debates of our era at the mercy of party lines. Fiscal affairs abroad are falling victim to heavy scrutiny AND speculation. Overall, this doesn't paint a very clear BIG PICTURE perspective. Well actually...(read more) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.